Tag Archives: raw data

Accuracy of Zillow Zestimates: a review of recent data.

Ever wondered how truly accurate those Zillow estimates are in showing what your home will sell for? Wonder no more! I’ve been telling clients since Zillow’s inception that their values are usually way off, but here is some raw data so that you can see it for yourself.

For my data, I selected all homes that sold and closed within the last week in Oregon City and show you prices that these homes sold for versus Zillow’s Zestimate. Here are the cliff notes:

There were twenty homes that closed within the last 7 days.

Of those twenty homes, Zillow’s Zestimate was within $5,000 of the actual sales price on four of the properties.

Six were within $5,000-$15,000 of the actual sales price.

Two were within $15,000-$25,000.

Two were within $25,000-$35,000.

One was within $35,000-$45,000.

Lastly, four homes out of the twenty that sold were at least $45,000 off from the actual sales price of the home. 

The take away message from this? Zillow’s Zestimates are probably accurate within $50,000 of what a home will actually sell for. Maybe half of the time the website will be within $15k of the sales price. However, many of these will sell for vastly more than what Zillow’s estimate shows, some will sell significantly under, and a handful will sell right around the estimate.

Address Sold price “zestimate” Home sold for ___ % above/below zillow’s zestimate:
511 1ST ST $158,000 $188,879 84.00%
18817 ROUNDTREE DR $240,000 $242,657 99.00%
19201 MILES ST $250,000 $242,263 103.00%
522 JACKSON ST $253,000 $204,306 124.00%
18777 BLUE RIDGE DR $265,000 $270,781 98.00%
19132 BEDFORD DR $270,000 $261,822 103.00%
13183 WASSAIL LN $280,000 $233,219 120.00%
19316 TOWERCREST DR $280,000 $257,416 109.00%
14388 TALAWA DR $289,000 $257,416 112.00%
23529 S TRILLIUM HOLLOW RD $290,000 $243,878 119.00%
18701 LASSEN CT $296,500 $292,576 101.00%
17445 WAKE ROBIN CIR $305,000 $317,272 96.00%
20005 MOSSY MEADOWS $329,900 $323,158 102.00%
13633 BARCLAY HILLS DR $330,000 $335,177 98.00%
146 PARK DR $350,000 $350,954 100.00%
18927 Wynton DR $351,450 No zest. listed
16265 BARLOW DR $381,500 $388,101 98.00%
16300 S HENRICI RD $407,000 $368,020 111.00%
1307 15TH ST $425,000 $404,270 105.00%
18598 ALADDIN WAY $540,000 $487,452 111.00%

There is no substitute for a human to help guide you through pricing your home. Having about 25% of the properties off by $50,000 is way too big a financial risk to take. And, in the past, I’ve seen sold price/zestimates that were even larger discrepancies than $50k.

Should you price your home for sale low high or low? Let’s look at the raw data.

When my seller-clients call me to start the process of getting their home on the market, one of my first tasks is to do a CMA (Comparative Market Analysis) on the property. This thorough report will show us a range in prices in which the home is likely to sell. My seller-clients often ask me what price they should start out at. They frequently tell me that they feel they should start higher than what they think it will actually close for, because buyers are almost always going to come in with a low price. I tell them this isn’t necessarily true, that in *this market* homes that are priced well tend to sell full or above full price, but homes that are priced too high tend to sit on the market awhile, often selling for less. This post shows data to back up that advice.

The following is a list of ALL homes that have sold in Oregon City in the last thirty days. This is just a “snapshot” of one local Portland metro suburban market.

The left column, “Days on Market” shows how many days the home was on the market prior to going pending. The next column is the ML#, identifying which property was on the market. After that is what price the seller had started out at, and after that is the price the home sold. The column on the right shows the ratio of list to sell price.

Here’s a synopsis of the data: 
-The homes are organized by how long they stayed on the market prior to getting a pending sale.
-There were 87 homes that closed in the Oregon City area in the last thirty days.
-The vast majority of these homes sold very quickly.
-I see trends in list/sell price ratios in homes that sold within ten days, ten to thirty days, thirty to 90 days, and homes above the 90 day mark:

Homes that sold within ten days: 
-About half of the homes that closed in the last thirty days sold within ten days of hitting the market!
-Of the homes that sold within ten days, about half sold full-price, half sold more than full price, and only couple sold under full price. 

Homes that sold within ten to thirty days: 
-About 1/4 of the homes that closed within the last thirty days sold within 10-30 days of hitting the market.
-List/sale price ratios are about equally divided between homes that sold above, at, or below the asking price.

Homes that took 30-90 days to sell: 
-About a dozen homes that closed within the last thirty days took 30-90 days to get an offer.
-These homes typically sold around 95% of the asking price.

Homes that took more than 90 days to sell: 
-There were about 10 homes that needed 90 days or more to go pending.
-These homes tended to sell for about 90% of the sales price, unless they were new construction or a short sale, which take more time to get offers.

The take away message from all of this data: 
This data clearly displays that buyers offers do not “always” come in below the asking price. In fact, many times they come in higher if the home has not been on the market long. And buyers DO pay attention to how long the home has been on the market, and will adjust their offering price accordingly. See tip #2 on this advice column on Trulia for more on why buyers adjust their prices this way. 

Here is the raw data for you to review:

Days on Market ML # List price Sales Price Ratio note
0 15379912 349,900.00 349,900.00 100.00%
0 15322645 265,000.00 270,000.00 102.00%
1 15581730 299,900.00 296,500.00 99.00%
1 15607584 350,000.00 360,000.00 103.00%
1 15296533 179,000.00 277,000.00 154.00%
1 15581731 299,900.00 296,500.00 99.00%
1 15476059 299,990.00 316,100.00 105.00%
2 15450131 349,900.00 357,000.00 102.00%
2 15494859 389,999.00 392,999.00 100.00%
2 15655278 249,950.00 250,000.00 100.00%
2 15601606 280,000.00 285,000.00 102.00%
2 15649940 307,500.00 307,500.00 100.00%
2 15456426 289,000.00 313,000.00 108.00%
2 15034410 324,900.00 324,900.00 100.00%
2 15047178 324,900.00 331,000.00 102.00%
3 15239577 329,900.00 341,000.00 103.00%
3 15615840 539,000.00 540,000.00 100.00%
3 15544653 245,000.00 244,035.00 100.00%
3 15029746 285,000.00 290,000.00 101.00%
4 15244462 360,000.00 360,000.00 100.00%
4 15691953 499,900.00 499,900.00 100.00%
4 15175870 239,900.00 239,900.00 100.00%
4 15529200 269,900.00 275,000.00 102.00%
4 15391532 269,900.00 280,000.00 104.00%
4 15632787 268,500.00 280,000.00 104.00%
4 15012109 289,900.00 $290,000 100.00%
4 15559876 279,900.00 290,000.00 104.00%
4 15272464 319,000.00 325,500.00 102.00%
5 15466370 325,000.00 340,000.00 105.00%
5 15107424 329,000.00 332,500.00 101.00%
5 15466370 325,000.00 340,000.00 105.00%
6 15035049 339,900.00 339,900.00 100.00%
6 15530536 344,900.00 350,000.00 101.00%
6 15570596 359,000.00 359,000.00 100.00%
6 15473045 170,000.00 180,000.00 106.00%
6 15202381 200,000.00 200,000.00 100.00%
6 15435611 199,500.00 240,000.00 120.00%
6 15050036 259,900.00 270,000.00 104.00%
6 15585965 289,000.00 289,000.00 100.00%
6 15035049 339,000.00 339,000.00 100.00%
7 15647733 374,900.00 374,900.00 100.00%
7 15563531 425,000.00 407,000.00 96.00%
7 15096104 319,900.00 318,700.00 100.00%
8 15074987 240,000.00 245,000.00 102.00%
9 15667826 399,900.00 400,000.00 100.00%
11 15293497 349,900.00 350,000.00 100.00%
12 15396773 259,900.00 253,000.00 97.00%
12 15665087 300,000.00 290,000.00 97.00%
12 15589357 329,500.00 330,000.00 100.00%
13 15233888 300,000.00 292,500.00 97.00%
13 15250604 358,999.00 381,500.00 105.00%
13 15311351 568,000.00 543,611.00 96.00%
13 15233888 300,000.00 292,500.00 96.00%
14 15294110 358,900.00 358,900.00 100.00%
14 15095749 594,700.00 594,700.00 100.00%
14 15261625 269,900.00 265,000.00 98.00%
15 15139198 220,000.00 226,500.00 103.00%
16 15232008 349,900.00 335,000.00 96.00%
16 15508023 339,000.00 336,000.00 99.00%
20 15461779 374,900.00 374,900.00 100.00%
21 15578366 235,000.00 235,000.00 100.00%
21 15022494 299,000.00 $289,000 96.00%
31 15142657 425,000.00 425,000.00 100.00%
34 15221005 294,900.00 286,000.00 97.00%
34 15330552 339,000.00 325,000.00 95.00%
52 14038853 429,900.00 450,000.00 105.00% new construction
53 14660142 449,900.00 447,500.00 99.00%
58 15306094 356,900.00 349,900.00 98.00%
60 15627885 325,000.00 $305,000 94.00%
63 15426426 319,900.00 311,400.00 97.00%
68 15442766 325,000.00 299,000.00 92.00%
68 15201503 324,500.00 318,000.00 98.00%
79 15655651 354,900.00 356,900.00 100.00% new construction
79 14081155 389,900.00 389,900.00 100.00% new construction
79 14176899 169,900.00 158,000.00 93.00%
82 15607375 255,000.00 229,700.00 90.00%
91 15648604 285,000.00 278,000.00 97.00%
112 14654121 425,000.00 370,000.00 87.00%
135 14070284 598,900.00 590,000.00 98.00%
138 14282473 695,000.00 670,000.00 96.00%
141 14671525 265,000.00 270,000.00 101.00% short sale
182 14297397 229,900.00 217,000.00 94
198 14373063 265,000.00 231,500.00 87.00%
229 14360151 384,900.00 376,950.00 98.00%
270 14607200 559,900.00 559,900.00 100.00% short sale
446 13104108 329,950.00 351,450.00 106.00% new construction

Please call or email me with any questions. I look forward to helping you!